🦢Black Swan Street Weekly Stock Market Summary (Sept. 25th - Sept. 29th 2023)

Welcome to Black Swan Street!

Welcome to Black Swan Street, the financial lifeguard that saves you from drowning in information overload.

It was an crazy week, so let’s get into it:

• Interest Rates Reach Scary Levels📈

• Earnings Summary💰

• Headline Roundup🗞

• Next Week In The Stock Market🔮

Read time: 6 minutes

Interest Rates Reach Scary Levels📈

Interest rates are rising… and rising fast.

To break it down:

• Since May 2021, the average 30-year mortgage has tripled, going from 2.6% to 7.8% in just over two years. This also marks a 23-year high.

• The 10-Year Note Yield hit 4.59% this week, its highest level since October 2007 - remember what else was happening around 2007-2008?

Here’s an overview of the major global interest rates:

Look at the change from the ‘latest value’ to ‘1 year prior’. We’re almost seeing a ~60% increase across the board - not good.

The United States national debt is currently around $33.13 trillion… and what comes with high levels of debt? Interest payments! And what affects the level of your interest payments? Interest rates!

It’s all connected.

It’s estimated the United States is paying nearly $723 million in daily interest.

The effects of interest rates take time to feel, but one thing is for sure - they will be felt at these levels.

Follow us on Twitter for real time analysis as this develops:

@BlackSwanStreet

Earnings Summary💰

In-Depth Earnings Dive:

Thor Industries (THO)

• Adj. EPS $1.68 beats $0.97 estimate

• Sales $2.74B beats $2.42B estimate

• Guides for FY24 Adj. EPS of $6.25-$7.25 vs $7.12 estimate

• Guides for FY24 Sales of $10.5B-$11B vs $10.8B estimate

• The RV-maker logged net income of $90.3M, for the fourth quarter ended July 31st, declining from $280.9M a year earlier

Costco (COST)

• Adj. EPS $4.86 beats $4.79 estimate

• Sales $78.94B beats $77.72B estimate

• Same-store sales +1.1% below +1.87% estimate

TD Synnex (SNX)

• Adj. EPS $2.78 beats $2.48 estimate

• Sales $13.96B miss $14.11B estimate

• Expects Q4 Revenue of $14B-$15B vs $15.21B estimate

• Expects Q4 Adj. EPS $2.40-$2.90 vs $2.95 estimate

Cintas (CTAS)

• Adj. EPS $3.70 beats $3.67 estimate

• Sales $2.34B inline with $2.34B estimate

• Raises FY24 EPS Outlook from $13.85-$14.35 to $14.00-$14.45 vs $14.42 estimate

• Raises FY24 Revenue Guidance from $9.35B-$9.50B to $9.40B-$9.52B vs $9.5B estimate

Micron (MU)

• Adj. EPS ($1.07) beats ($1.18) estimate

• Sales $4.01B beats $3.91B estimate

• Sees Q1 Adj. EPS ($1.14)-($1.00) vs ($0.90) estimate

• Sees Q1 Revenue $4.2B-$4.6B vs $3.97B estimate

Accenture (ACN)

• Adj. EPS $2.71 beats $2.66 estimate

• Sales $15.98B miss $16.07B estimate

• Board Approves $4B of Additional Share-Repurchase Authority, Bringing Total Outstanding Authority to about $6.5B

• Raises Quarterly Dividend by 15%

• Sees FY24 Adj. EPS of $11.97-$12.32 vs $12.46 estimate

Jabil (JBL)

• Adj. EPS $2.45 beats $2.32 estimate

• Sales $8.46B miss $8.54B estimate

• Expects Q1 Net Revenue of $8.4B-$9B vs $9.18B estimate

• Expects Q1 Adj. EPS of $2.40-$2.80 vs $2.33 estimate

• Increases Current Share Repurchase Authorization to $2.5B from $776M Outstanding (as of Aug. 31st)

Headline Roundup🗞

• Amazon to invest up to $4 billion in ChatGPT rival ‘Anthropic’ - NBC

• Krispy Kreme CEO, Michael Tattersfield, steps down after about 7 years in the role - FB

• Writers reach tentative deal with studios to end Hollywood strike that lasted nearly 150 days - CNBC

• Ford halts construction of controversial $3.5 billion battery plant in Michigan - BBG

• Transocean to offer private offering of $300 million of five-year bonds - MW

• Fisker expects to ramp up deliveries to 300 vehicles per day - BW

• Dick’s Sporting Goods to hire 8,600 seasonal workers this holiday season - MW

• JPMorgan paying $75 million to settle lawsuit over Jeffrey Epstein ties - CNBC

• UPS hiring over 100,000 holiday workers - FB

• Amazon faces antitrust lawsuit from FTC and 17 state attorneys - WP

• U.S. New Home Sales: 675k, from previous 739k, and below 700k forecast

• Target to close 9 stores across four states because of theft and crime - ST

• Citigroup readying $5B bond offering - MW

• AGCO Corp to acquire 85% ($2 billion) stake in navigation products maker Trimble’s agribusiness - RT

• Peloton and Lululemon enter into five-year partnership to make the at-home exercise brand the exclusive digital fitness content provider for Lululemon - YF

• Second-quarter U.S. GDP growth unrevised at 2.1% - RT

• U.S. PCE Price Index YoY: 3.5%, from previous 3.4%, and inline with 3.5% forecast

• UAW expands strikes to Ford and GM plants, Stellantis spared as progress made - YF

• Blue Apron to be acquired by food delivery firm Wonder Group for $103M, stockholders will receive $13 per share - YF

Next Week in the Stock Market🔮

Earnings Calendar Next Week:

What the swan is watching:

Tuesday: McCormick & Company

Thursday: Levi Strauss & Co, Constellation Brands, Conagra Brands

Economic Calendar Next Week:

The Swan’s Picks🦢

📺 Amazon announces ads in Prime Video: Cmon Amazon. Really. Starting in early 2024, unless you pay an additional $2.99 per month for an ad-free streaming experience, your favorite TV shows and movies are going to have ads in them.

📱 Reddit nerds rejoice in riches: Okay. I’ll admit. I’m a Reddit nerd also. But starting this week, Reddit unveiled plans to pay its top contributors cash for popular posts. Reddit will split revenue with people who are awarded “gold” by other users.

🎮 Fortnite vs Everyone: First off, we got Fortnite vs the Supreme Court. Initially Epic Games, which makes Fortnite, sued Apple back in 2020 after Apple booted Fortnite from IOS. Now, Epic Games filed a writ of certiorari asking the U.S. Supreme Court to review a lower court ruling in their antitrust case. Epic is arguing that Apple unfairly monopolizes the mobile app space with IOS and its in-app purchasing system

🏅 Costco and the Gold frenzy: Costco is now selling gold bars online and the CFO says it’s killing it, even being quoted saying “Yes, but when we load them on the site, they’re typically gone within a few hours, and we limit two per member.” Either people are genuinely scared of the outlook for the economy or Costco’s CFO is capping. Who knows which.

The Wrap-Up🔄

That’s all for this week!!

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